This document is a peer review of NZIER's report Economic impact of meeting 2050 emissions targets: Stage 2 modelling by Dr Niven Winchester.
The analysis by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) uses an appropriate modelling framework that meets global best practice standards in most areas, and the modelling exercises meet the requirements set out by the Ministry for the Environment (MfE). Some assumptions in the analysis likely result in emission reduction costs being overestimated, while other assumptions result in the cost being underestimated. On balance, the costs of meeting emission targets estimated in the study are likely in the high end of the probable range. Although the analysis is appropriate under the time constraint for the study, future modelling exercises could be improved in several ways.