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Climate change impacts

Motu's research in this area aims to generate new knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change and variability on New Zealand’s environment, including our natural ecosystems and native species, and the impacts on the many productive activities which depend on the environment and enable continued growth and prosperity.

Motu also conducted work under the Deep South National Science Challenge. The mission of this project is to enable New Zealanders to adapt, manage risk, and thrive in a changing climate. The Impacts and Implication Programme aims to understand the potential impacts and implications of climate change for New Zealand to support planning and decision-making, and aid adaptation efforts.

Motu’s recent focus examined the impacts of climate change and adaptation to those impacts, in particular:

The science of how New Zealanders manage risk, adapt and thrive in a changing climate
A series of facilitated dialogues where scientists and stakeholders identify research questions relevant to important decisions in New Zealand society.

These dialogues included:

Climate risk, housing and insurance: How can insurance inform and ameliorate climate risk for coastal property?
How can wastewater and storm-water infrastructure be most effectively adapted, or abandoned, in the face of gradual sea-level rise?
Vulnerable communities and sea level rise: What techniques will be the most effective for identifying those at risk and their relative vulnerability? How do we build a shared understanding of the likely impacts of sea level rise, enable effective community engagement in co-designing their future, and build social resilience for transition? What are the roles of local and central government.
How can we better manage increasingly frequent and severe droughts: Where are the vulnerable areas and land uses? What existing strategies could be used more intensively and what new approaches might be explored? Could drought insurance be improved? What is the role of storage and irrigation? Can we develop more drought resistant cultivars and land uses.
Urban and freight transport infrastructure, floods and sea-level rise.

Publications

Projecting the effect of climate change-induced increases in extreme rainfall on residential property damages: A case study from New Zealand

Authors: Jacob Pastor-Paz | Ilan Noy | Isabelle Sin | David Fleming | Abha Sood

Working Paper

New Zealand’s public insurer, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather-related events are likely to translate into higher…

EQC and extreme weather events (part 2): Measuring the impact of insurance on New Zealand landslip, storm and flood recovery using nightlights

Authors: Sally Owen | Ilan Noy | Jacob Pastor-Paz | David Fleming

Working Paper

Extremes will worsen.
Recent history shows us
damage can be fixed.

Climate change is predicted to make extreme weather events worse and more frequent in many places around the world. In New Zealand, the Earthquake Commission (EQC)…

Public insurance and climate change (part one): Past trends in weather-related insurance in New Zealand

Authors: David Fleming | Ilan Noy | Jacob Pastor-Paz | Sally Owen

Working Paper

Climate change concern:
many insurance claims from
weather already.

Climate change appears to be increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, negatively affecting communities as well as posing long-term sustainability challenges…

Communities and climate change: Vulnerability to rising seas and more frequent flooding

Note

Sea creeps up, storms surge.
Wet feet look to higher land
but pause, loving home.

Many communities and iwi in coastal and flood-prone locations face an uncertain future because of climate change, with rising sea levels…

The economic impacts of climate change

Author: Roberto Roson

Presentation

Human-generated greenhouse gases vary with levels of economic activity. Therefore, most climate change studies are based on models and scenarios of economic growth. Economic growth itself, however, is likely to be affected by climate change…

Climate change adaptation within New Zealand’s transport system

Note

Climate change threatens
our transport system. We need
clear rules and signals.

Love cars and hate trains? Love trains and hate planes? Love your bike but rely on trucks, trains, ships or planes to get…

Drought and climate change adaptation: impacts and projections

Note

Climate change driven
drought will affect New Zealand.
Focus on people.

Future drought may very well be the climate change impact with the most significant effect on our economy (see Westpac, 2018). A recent report by…

Climate Change and Stormwater and Wastewater Systems

Note

Coastal drains and pipes
combined with climatic change,
need thought and action.

We know climate change is happening and we know stormwater and wastewater systems are vulnerable. What we don’t know is how these impacts will…

Climate Change Engagement in Aotearoa New Zealand

Authors: Rhian Salmon | Catherine Leining

Other

A new report released by the Deep South Challenge this month recommends increasing the availability of plain-language resources about climate change in both English and te reo Māori, framing scientific information for application to practical…

Insurance, housing and climate adaptation: Current knowledge and future research

Note

Insurance, housing
Are hard climate change issues
Let’s research and talk

Climate change will inevitably threaten New Zealand’s coastal housing, but the exact nature of that threat will depend on the insurance…

Migration and the Environment in the Galapagos: An Analysis of Economic and Policy Incentives Driving Migration, Potential Impacts from Migration Control, and Potential Policies to Reduce Migration Pressure

Authors: Jo Hendy | Suzi Kerr

Article

From 1974 through 1997 the Galapagos experienced very rapid population growth, around six per cent per year. Sustained at this level, the population would continue to double every 12 years. Increased population brings an increased…

Report for the Working Group on CO2 Policy

Authors: Tim Denne | Suzi Kerr

Other

There are three basic questions for New Zealand CO2 policy.

How much New Zealand should regulate CO2 and the timing of regulation;
Whether New Zealand should use a tax system, a tradeable permit market or direct regulation;
How…

The Economic Implications of Climate-Induced Changes in Agricultural Production

Author: Adolf Stroombergen

Other

In this paper we again analyse the effects of climate-induced changes in agricultural production, and include forestry as well. We pursue a different methodology to estimate the effects of future climate change on agricultural and…

Climate Change, Innovation and Technology Policy

Author: Adam Jaffe

Presentation

There is a strong foundation in theoretical and empirical research in economics for the proposition that efficient climate policy must include both carbon-price policy and technology policy. Even the most modest projections of Greenhouse Gan…

Migration and the Environment (Galapagos)

Dataset

This dataset includes demographic data of the Galapagos Islands in English and Spanish. It contains information between 1950 and 2001 for Galapagos Islands, but time period could vary for different variables.

Data Source: Various sources. Please…

Scale and Transfers in International Emissions Offset Programs

Authors: Arthur van Benthem | Suzi Kerr

Article

Voluntary emissions offset programs between developing and industrialized countries suffer from adverse selection, because participants will self-select into the program. In contrast, pure subsidies for mitigation lead to full participation and hence efficiency, but require…

Predicted Impacts of Climate Change on New Zealand’s Biodiversity

Authors: Carolyn J Lundquist | Doug Ramsay | Andrew Swales | Rob Bell | Suzi Kerr

Article

In New Zealand, climate change impacts have already been observed, and will increase in future decades.

Average air temperature is predicted to warm by 2.1 degrees C by 2090 for a mid-range IPCC scenario (A1B), with…

The Science, Economics, and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Review of The Climate Casino by William Nordhaus

Authors: Adam Jaffe | Suzi Kerr

Article

The problem of global climate change presents overwhelming factual, analytical, and normative challenges. Nordhaus surveys this terrain bravely and mostly successfully. He explains the scientific/economic consensus that the planet is warming, that people are responsible,…

A New Zealand Electricity Market Model: Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Electricity Production and Consumption

Authors: Lew Evans | Graeme Guthrie | Andrea Lu

Working Paper

In this paper, we introduce an electricity market model and use it to explore the effect of climate change on electricity output and prices. It is calibrated to the New Zealand Electricity Market, and includes…

Testing for Energy Market Integration in China

Authors: Hengyun Ma | Les Oxley

Working Paper

This paper investigates energy market integration in China by employing univariate, and panel-based unit root tests and Granger causality tests applied to a new energy price data set. We identify price series that converge either…

Transition into and evolution of a New Zealand emissions trading system

Authors: Ralph Chapman | Suzi Kerr

Presentation

Where do we want to get in the long term within the international context?
What should a medium-term ETS look like?
What should we do in the period before we can implement a full ETS?

Reports from Cluster B: free allocation of NZ units, and economic modelling

Author: Suzi Kerr

Presentation

Reports from Cluster B meetings 2 and 3 (2007).

Evaluating Tax Rebates for Hybrid Vehicles

Author: Sumeet Gulati

Presentation

This presentation uses data on car sales by model across Canadian Provinces to estimate the effect of provincial tax rebates for hybrid electric vehicles. We ask two questions: what is the effect of the tax…

China’s Energy Situation and Its Implications in the New Millennium

Authors: Hengyun Ma | Les Oxley

Working Paper

Many are interested in China's energy situation, however, numerous energy related issues in China still remain unanswered. For example, what are the potential forces driving energy demand and supply? Previous reviews focused only on fossil…

Optimal Infrastructure Adaptation to Climate Change

Author: Arthur Grimes

Note

Considerable emphasis has been placed on designing climate change mitigation policies, both in New Zealand and internationally. This paper, while also dealing with climate change, alters the focus to adaptation policy. Adaptation is important whether…