The Economic Implications of Climate-Induced Changes in Agricultural Production

This paper was produced by Adolf Stroombergen of Infometrics for NIWA

In this paper we again analyse the effects of climate-induced changes in agricultural production, and include forestry as well. We pursue a different methodology to estimate the effects of future climate change on agricultural and forestry output. Instead of looking at adverse climatic events, notably droughts, this study is focussed on the longer term impacts of projected climate change based on a number of models and scenarios. There is also explicit modelling of the relationship between temperature, water availability and plant growth. As before the results are then fed into a general equilibrium model of the New Zealand economy.