Employment effects of vaccine mandate defiance

Thou shalt vaccinate
came the command from above.
Defiers suffer

We estimate employment effects of Covid-19 vaccine mandates on workers in the New Zealand education and health sectors.

Unvaccinated workers are classified based on whether they comply with or defy the mandate.

We identify substantial heterogeneity in outcomes across these two groups, using already-vaccinated workers as the control group in a difference-indifference regression framework. 

Mandate defiers experience 'permanent' labour market scarring with higher non-employment, lower wages conditional on employment, and increased mobility within New Zealand, consistent with moving to work opportunities.

These effects weaken over time but persist for at least two and a half years.

Citation

Fabling, R. 2026. “Employment effects of vaccine mandate defiance”. Motu Working Paper 26-04. Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. Wellington, New Zealand.