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Qantas Airways and American Airlines Joint Business Agreement: Independent Economic and Competition Analysis
Published: 2026
Authors: Stuart Donovan, Leon Stirk-Wang, Tadhg Ryan-Charleton
Following the introduction of the Civil Aviation Act 2023, the Ministry of Transport developed an assessment framework to improve the transparency and robustness of the process for authorising airline alliances. The Ministry then engaged Motu researchers Stuart Donovan, Leon Stirk-Wang, and Tadhg Ryan-Charleton to lead independent economic and competition analysis of the first two applications submitted for (re)authorisation.
Our analysis focuses on the joint business agreement between Qantas Airways and American Airlines, which governs both airlines’ operations on routes between Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This assessment focuses on the effects of routes that involve New Zealand (Auckland-Los Angeles, Auckland-Dallas Fort Worth, Sydney-Auckland-New York). The current authorisation was due to expire in March 2026, and the partners had applied for a further five-year authorisation.
We followed a five-step analytical approach that involved defining and analysing relevant markets (including market shares, fares, capacity, and feeder traffic), assessing counterfactual scenarios submitted by the airlines, examining competition effects, and considering the wider public value of the agreement.
Our analysis suggested that the joint business agreement supports investment by Qantas and American Airlines without hindering investment by other airlines and exists in a market characterised by low barriers to entry. We consider it more likely that the joint business agreement will have pro-competitive effects. We suggested that the net impact of the agreement was more likely than not to be beneficial for consumers and New Zealand if authorised.
Read our report Qantas Airways and American Airlines Joint Business Agreement Analysis
Funders
Ministry of Transport
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